No,
it's not the latest hairstyle sported by Harry Styles as he tours the
world. Nor is it the latest iteration of Donald's comb-over. Nope.
The September Fade is the semi-annual collapse of the Chicago Cubs on
the odd years they are actually in contention.
I've
only been following the Cubs since 1968, so I'm hardly an expert. But
they have an unpleasant habit of fading in September. Do I remember
the jokes about the Cubs relocating to the Philippines and renaming
themselves the Manila Folders?
Sadly,
yes.
For
purposes of juxtaposition, the 2016 Cubs followed up a sizzling
August (22 – 6) with a stupendous September, going 17 – 10 as
they wrapped up the NL Central division. The previous year, after
having embraced the idea they were legitimate contenders, the Cubs
also followed up a torrid August with an equally-torrid September (19
– 9), ending the year on an eight-game winning streak.
(You
will excuse me for not mentioning that after taking the season series
from the New York Mets 7 – 0, they disappeared against them in the
National League Championship Series, falling four games to none.)
Even
after a slow start in 2017, they caught fire in late-summer, going 16
– 8 in July, 17 – 12 in August and 19 – 9 in—you guessed
it—September. In 2018 they managed a still-impressive 16 – 12
record, tying the Milwaukee Brewers for the division lead.
(Naturally, they lost game one-hundred sixty-three at home to those
same Brewers, managing just three hits in a 3 – 1 loss.)
Following
that defeat, the Cubs went on to lose another game—also at home—in a
one-game wild card series to the 1927 New York Yank...er, I mean the
2018 Colorado Rockies. The score was 2 – 1, but at least the Cubs
totaled six hits.
In
a manner of speaking, the immediate future began in 2019. In what was
widely seen as a make-it-or-break-it year for Maddon and company, the
Cubs played well, ending August with a 73 – 62 record, in
second-place just 2.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
But
do you remember September?
The
Cubs crashed, going 11 – 16 and losing ten out of their last twelve
games (which included a season-high nine-game losing streak).
So,
yeah. This isn't new.
Most
famously there was 1969. After enjoying a five to nine game divisional
lead from mid-May through Labor Day, the Cubs went on to lose
seventeen of twenty-five games that September, which included a
season-high eight-game losing streak. It was enough to subvert a very
healthy divisional lead to the point where the Cubs stood eight games
behind the New York Mets by season's end.
In
an era where only division winners were invited to participate in the
post-season, it was a brutal end to a campaign that had
success-starved Cub fans rekindling their belief in Santa Claus.
I
hate the Mets to this day. And I always will.
2008.
The Cubs were cruising along at a 100-win pace when September struck.
They enjoyed a division lead that grew to 10.5 games by
the 22nd, despite the Cubs suffering through what was
easily the worst month of the season (12 – 12).
It
was perhaps fortunate that September had just thirty days.
The
good news was that the ninety-seven win Cubs were opening the
divisional playoffs against the 84 – 78 Los Angeles Dodgers, who
not only held the worst won-loss record of any of the MLB post-season
combatants, but the worst road record of any of the five
National League post-season entrants.
To
Cub fans who hasn't yet surrendered their innocence, this was a sign
from God that the Cubs were headed to the World Series. To those of
us who had lost our virginity some time ago, this pairing merited
only a reserved and distant “Hmmm.”
The
Cubs wasted no time in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,
losing game one 7 – 2 and game two 10 – 3 at Wrigley—to the
second-worst road team in the playoffs. I didn't even bother checking
the score for game three. Didn't need to. I knew instinctively they
had once again found the cloud in the silver lining.
Unlike
other Cubs teams that had suffered a difficult September, the 2008
squad distinguished itself because it had also experienced a
difficult October, something the 1984, 1989 and 2003 clubs were also
familiar with.
Yes,
for the masochistic Cub fan, it was a season to remember.
2023
didn't plumb those depths, but managed to hold several peculiar
qualities all its own.
First
off, you should know the Cubs held the third-best run differential in
the National League for the majority of the season. Their pythagorean
won-lost record was 90 – 72, a full seven games above their actual
record.
This
was going to be a continuation of the second-half success last year's
team enjoyed. And with new additions like Cody Bellinger and Dansby
Swanson plus the return of Kyle Hendricks, why wouldn't it be?
Read on, dear reader. Read on.
So
what went wrong? The Cubs punched well below their weight. They ran
notoriously hot and cold. Slumps and injuries held an all-access pass
to their locker room.
Jameson
Taillon and Drew Smyly appeared in April to be decent-quality fourth
and fifth starters, but that didn't quite happen. Taillon's first
half was a disaster, and Smyly never got untracked and was relegated
to the bullpen.
However
good Marcus Stroman was in the first half (and he was Cy
Young-nominee good), he tailed off during the Cubs' visit to London
and never recovered. (A cartilage-injury to his ribs helped ensure he
wouldn't.)
Hendricks
arrived in June and was a great help. But the Cubs couldn't score
when Hendricks was on the mound. Ten of his twenty-four starts
resulted in a no decision, and what usually happened on those
occasions was that the bullpen would extend to the opposition the
generosity Hendricks himself refused to.
That
left Justin Steele. The new guy in town had a breakthrough year and
was a deserved candidate for the Cy Young trophy until a couple of
late-season starts went south.
Then
there was the bullpen. It was a bullpen-by-committee kind of deal,
with Adbert Alzolay emerging as the eventual closer. And for the
majority of the year he was quite good. But his calendar contained a
'September' too, and he was sidelined at the most critical time of
the year.
There
were lots and lots of blown save opportunities in September,
something that doesn't align well with post-season play. Over the
last thirty days, only the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals
created more save opportunities (thirteen) than the Cubs' dozen. The Cubs could only convert four.
There's
no telling what those eight blown saves (defined as a lead lost in
the eighth or ninth inning) did to the club's psyche. But
the position players weren't without blame as slumps coursed through
the lineup in a highly-democratic fashion.
Swanson,
the Cubs big free-agent signing, had a good year defensively but his
offensive production was on the weak side. Specifically, he hit just
.184 in August (OPS of .662) and .236 in September—not the numbers
you're expecting from a triple-digit signing.
Seiya
Suzuki rebounded nicely at the end of the year, but could only manage
a batting average of .177 in June (with a slugging percentage of .228
and an OPS of .475) and .240 in July (with a less-bad slugging
percentage of .350 and an OPS of .660).
Even
Bellinger slumped, hitting .226 in May and .250 in June with slugging
percentages of .300 each month. But a month-long knee injury hit
him in mid-May, so..
He
also tailed-off in September.
The
lasting picture I have of the 2023 Cubs is that there always seemed
to be someone on the IL and/or enmeshed in a deep slump. Suffering
from a lack of depth, this was a club that could not afford to be
hamstrung by a starting pitcher or positional player or bullpen
closer struggling. And yet it was—repeatedly.
The
powers that be maintain the Cubs weren't supposed to be
contending for a playoff slot, which helps not one iota in picking up
the pieces of this broken season. That wasn't the point! They were
contending. And they choked.
On
the other hand, the Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles
won 305 games between them. The Orioles and Dodgers were swept by
teams that won (respectively) 90 and 84 games.
(Just
for fun, I'll add the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays, who were swept in the
wild card round by a 90-win team, also.)
The
Braves will likely bow out of their series tonight to a team that
also won 90. That's four teams—all substantially better than the
Cubs—who went 1 – 11 in October.
Maybe
that's the reason we keep watching—the immutable and unexplainable
mysteries of sport.