Resisting Quantification

I will admit that more NFL Hall-of-Famers were drafted in the first-round than any other. And that this probably applies to MLB, the NBA and the NHL as well.

But judging by the rampant hysteria surrounding the value of first-round picks, nothing so much as a reliable starter was ever drafted afterwards. The all-or-nothing premium placed on them borders on mental illness.

Anyone out there remember JaMarcus Russell? Brian Bosworth? Tony Mandarich? All had a yellow-brick road paved to Canton, OH. They merely had to show up.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Hall of Fame. None of them made it. Career-wise, none of them even made it out of the driveway.

So. Fasten your seat belts: first-round picks are a crap shoot. Yep. With odds only marginally better than the rounds that follow. Humans continue to resist the most detailed and intrusive examination. We flower when no one thought us capable. And granted, we sometimes fail when—again—no one thought us capable.

We are difficult. Unquantifiable.

In a sport ruled by “experts”, I relish the fact that so many of the best quarterbacks I ever saw were drafted well outside of the first-round: Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Brett Favre and (drumroll, please) Tom Brady.

If the “can't miss” tag overlooked so many of the all-time greats at the sport's most-scrutinized position, what does that say about our scrutiny? Our evaluation?

Not a whole lot, I'm afraid. Is anyone asking “What are we missing?”

Given the time, I'm confident I could assemble an All-NFL squad of third rounders every bit as potent as one crafted from first rounders. As I could in every other sport.

And yet our belief in this delusion persists and carries with it powerful consequences. For instance, the salaries enjoyed by first-round picks versus those picked in subsequent rounds.

For an NFL prospect, simply falling out of the first-round and into the second translates into a financial hit of 20%.

Without doing a survey on the relative success of first-round picks versus second-round picks, this is a startling difference. Is there really that much difference between number thirty-two and number thirty-three?

Alas, we are a society heavily invested in name brands and image and reputation. “How can you miss with a __________________ from Alabama versus a __________________ from Black Hills State University? You can't!”

Right?

It goes without saying I was delighted by the 2016 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame class, which featured Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza. One was a can't-miss prospect lauded from the day he spouted pubic hair. The other was an afterthought.

Without enlisting the services of Google, can you tell me which was which?

Didn't think so.

If we are going to be utterly and completely honest, we need to admit the only thing drafts accurately predict are the sizes of signing bonuses and rookie contracts. Everything else is, like I said, a crap shoot.